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The support for Britain leaving the EU has taken the lead, however narrow, show the latest results of the survey made by pollster Survation done for the forex broker IG Group. Just a week before the vote on June 23, 52% of the respondents said they would vote “leave”, while those in favor of remaining are 48%.
The result of IG and Survation’s survey is much in tune with the results of several other polls published this week, which show the Brexit supporters seem to be prevailing with anywhere between four and six percentage points in the different surveys.
According to IG’s analyst Chris Beauchamp, the poll results reflect the general trend that has caused much volatility in financial markets over the past week.
“The two key issues remain the economy and immigration, with the balance between these likely to be the key decider on which the UK’s membership of the EU stands or falls,” Beauchamp notes. “Of course, polls are not the whole story, and we have now finally reached the point seen during the Scottish independence referendum, when a swing to the previous underdog put the polls at odds with the betting markets,” he added.
At the same time, the results of IG’s own Brexit barometer, based on trading in political binaries, show that 58% of the broker’s clients think the “In” vote will prevail and 42% believe in the contrary.
“It is notable that that the IG binary continues to see a greater weight towards the Remain campaign, with the chance of an ‘In’ vote at 58%, although this is down significantly from its previous high,” Chris Beauchamp commented. “The country has apparently moved back to fretting about polls, dropping their previous insouciance, but history still teaches us that referendums tend to see the status quo side emerge victorious, with financial markets taking that as their key reason for comfort.”
The optimism or pessimism, however you choose to consider it, of IG’s Brexit barometer has changed, compared to the previous results from end of May, when 81% of the broker’s clients believed the Bremain will prevail. The significant drop has prompted IG to announce it is raising marings on the FTSE 100 index and all pound pairs on June 10, with more increases on June 17 and June 22.